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Another Pundit is Possible

Top 5 (Okay, 6) Reasons for “Supervoters” Why the Clinton “Big State” Strategy and Argument is a House of Cards

1.) It lost the last two elections.

2.) When Bill Clinton, in South Carolina, pushed the double-speak of “Obama-can’t-win-but-they-would-make-a-dream-ticket” line, he reasoned it would be because of what he implied was Obama’s “urban” draw. Yes. That same old map – with Hillary taking what would be, according to conventional wisdom, Republican territory in a general election. As if Clinton will really compete there. Anyone seen her “negatives” amongst Democrats, let alone Republicans?

3.) This is further undercut by Obama’s wins in those “small states.” You know, where there are a lot of those “white” working class voters that Clinton says are her “base.” Am I missing something here? I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt Obama is going continue to bring new voters to the polls and pad the popular vote – state by state. (“There are not blue states and red states…there are the United States…blah, blah, blah.”)

4.) Clinton’s latest double-speak where behind closed doors she continues to say Obama can’t win, but when pushed said that not only does Clinton think Obama can beat McCain, but she also said she’ll do “anything” she can to make sure a Democrat takes the Whitehouse following November’s election. That would make the “Big State” strategy moot anyway, right? I mean, since she’ll bring it home for the Dems anyway?

5.) The reason Obama’s message has resonated with large chunks of the electorate is because it transcends the micro-poll messaging and targeting that leads to a divided electorate – currently playing itself out with the Clinton “Big State” (and 50% + 1, slash and burn, kitchen sink) strategy in exit polling, showing the same old divides of class, race, gender, religion, region, etc., etc., etc.

6.) Playing devil’s advocate (you know, “we’re only toughening Obama up for the general when the Republican attack machine really comes after whoever’s the nominee”) still makes you an advocate for, um, the devil. Uh, did I mention Clinton’s negatives?

In the end, what Obama has bet on is that changing the electoral map can transcend what a friend of mine calls the “tyranny of the six percent” (you know – so many agree with you and so many disagree with you and you go after the rest) that leads to micro-poll messaging and targeting and 50 % + 1 tactical elections (oh yeah, and two-party corporate control of the electoral system – oops did I say that?) where solutions and progress get lost in the margins of the “undecideds” and special interests.

This race is down to a debate about strategy. Obama's team has shown throughout the primary campaign that it is clearly better at strategy, and Clinton's house of cards is showing that Obama's strategy is clearly better for the general election.

Karlos Gauna Schmieder is a media and communications strategist from Albuquerque, NM, currently living in the Bay Area. The views expressed here are his own, and do not reflect the views of the organizations he has worked for or currently works for -- they're non-profits, folks...

ABQ Tribune's last edition

Cross-posted from SWOPblogger.
The world of news media - particularly with traditional daily and afternoon newspapers - is fluid and chaotic as the industry struggles with its failure to keep pace with changing technologies, content production dynamics and, simply, the world around it. Ironic for an industry dealing with what's "new," no doubt.

Yet, studies continue to show that public policy follows the agenda set by traditional, often corporate, press.

With the death of the Albuquerque Tribune, the state's public policy agenda is now almost solely in the hands of the Albuquerque Journal. Given the media's profound influence on how we vote, think and understand our world, today's final edition of the Trib is tough news for progressive public policy in the state.

Continue Reading...

Take Action: Stop Big Media

The FCC approved new rules that will unleash a flood of media consolidation across America. The new rules will further consolidate local media markets -- taking away independent voices in cities already woefully short on local news and investigative journalism.

Congress has the power to throw out these rules -- and if hundreds of thousands of people demand it, they'll have to listen. Sign the open letter to Congress urging them to stop the FCC and stand with the public interest.

African American voters in California buck voter turnout trend

Cross-posted from Echolandia.
Published on: February 8, 2008
Published by: karlos schmieder

Likely and eligible African American Democrat voters made up 9% of Super Tuesday's California primary, according to Survey USA.

ProjectVote.org documented an increase in young, Latino and African American turnout across 5 important primary states (Arizona, California, Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee), and say young and people of color voted in record numbers in all Super Tuesday states.

Yet African Americans underperformed compared to their percentage of the voting eligible population in California, making up just 7% of the state’s Democratic voters, according to exit polls.

So what happened in California that African American’s bucked the trend of people of color outperforming their percentage of eligible voters in this year’s exciting Presidential election?

I think I have an answer, for the Bay Area at least.

Last October, Center for Media Justice (when we were still Youth Media Council) published Displacing the Dream - a study on Bay Area media coverage of housing and development in the region.

One finding that came out of it was that very little coverage focused on displacement patterns, particularly of African Americans. (Go here for blog posts, and see the insightful prologue at SF Bayview.)

As of 2006, Oakland and San Francisco had each lost 20-25% of their African American populations. Since then, this trend has only accelerated.

From the Displacing the Dream prologue: As more and more city space sells out to the highest bidder, longstanding communities - usually African-American, Latino and Asian - which hold rich social, economic and cultural networks, are displaced and, thus, destroyed. And with that destruction, there is tremendous cost.

One of those costs, particularly in the Bay Area, is the resulting loss of electoral, organizing and mobilization power for the region’s African American population.

Does predatory corporate development disenfranchise communities? A body of evidence is beginning to suggest it does.

Related post

Make Gulf Coast a part of Presidential Debate

Source: SF Bayview
CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and the other networks that have hosted this primary season's 30 presidential debates have yet to ask each candidate how they plan to help rebuild communities in New Orleans and along the Gulf Coast...

Through 14 Republican debates, no moderator has asked any Republican presidential candidates a single question about rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf Coast. Moderators of the 16 Democratic events have not done much better, directing only a fraction of their debates, less than 1 percent, to Gulf Coast recovery.
Read more for links to act.